AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading mostly 3 to 4 cents lower at midday after trading nearly 3 cents into the green earlier in the session. This morning’s weekly USDA Export Sales report showed that 915,270 MT of corn was booked for sale during the week ending July 21. Pre-report estimates ranged from 750,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Weekly shipments were the largest in a month. Total old crop commitments with 6 weeks left in the marketing year are 103.3% of a year ago. They were 96.9% of the previous year at this time in 2015. EIA ethanol production was 998,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 22. This is a grind of about 103 million bushels per week.

Sep 16 Corn is at $3.31 3/4, down 4 cents,

Dec 16 Corn is at $3.39 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 17 Corn is at $3.48 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents

May 17 Corn is at $3.53 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently a couple-three cents lower on the session. Export sales during the week ending July 21 fell short of pre-report expectations thanks to net old crop reductions of 1,365 MT. Total net sales were reported at 676,857 MT. Weekly shipments, however, were the largest since the week ending March 10. Old crop commitments are 101.8% of a year ago, down from 102.6% during the previous week. Soy meal sales totaled 154,321 MT during the previous week, right in the middle of trade estimates. Bookings of US soy oil were estimated before the report to be between 0 and 40,000 MT and were pegged at only 6,514 MT. Private exporters announced that 129,000 MT of US soybeans were sold to China this morning, and an additional 328,000 MT were sold to unknown destinations. Of the combined total, 71% was for 2016/17 delivery. These purchases will show up on next week’s USDA Export Sales report.

Aug 16 Soybeans are at $10.07 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Sep 16 Soybeans are at $9.98, down 1 3/4 cents,

Nov 16 Soybeans are at $9.83, down 3 cents,

Jan 17 Soybeans are at $9.84, down 2 1/4 cents,

Aug 16 Soybean Meal is at $343.30, down $1.50,

Aug 16 Soybean Oil is at $29.75, up $0.22

Wheat

Wheat futures are trading slightly higher at midday. The USDA Export Sales report published early this morning showed that 506,108 MT of US wheat was sold to international buyers during the week ending July 21. Traders were expecting the figure to be between 400,000 to 600,000 MT. Shipments were the second largest of the marketing year (which started June 1), and the third largest of the calendar year. The spring wheat average yield for Day 2 of the spring wheat tour was 46.9 bpa, up from Tuesday but still 0.4 bpa below last year. Egypt is tendering for wheat for Sept 1-10 delivery.

Sep 16 CBOT Wheat is at $4.16 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Sep 16 KCBT Wheat is at $4.13 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

Dec 16 MGEX Wheat is at $5.05 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle are currently trading 15 to 40 cents higher. Feeder futures are up $1.15 to $1.60 higher at midday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/26 was 65 cents higher at $139.26. Cash cattle trade has been mostly inactive so far this week, but a few dressed sales of $185 took place on Wednesday. The latest established market had live sales around $115. The USDA showed the average price of choice boxed beef this morning is 8 cents lower, and the average price of select boxes is down 30 cents. Through Wednesday, FI slaughter was estimated at 336,000 head, identical with last week, and 18,000head larger than the same three days in 2015. During the week ending July 21, 20,744 MT of US beef was booked for sale by foreign purchasers, the second-largest weekly total of the marketing year. As of last Thursday, commitments were 107.3% of a year ago.

Aug 16 Cattle are at $114.475, up $0.525,

Oct 16 Cattle are at $113.375, up $0.325,

Dec 16 Cattle are at $114.000, up $0.100,

Aug 16 Feeder Cattle are at $143.875, up $1.600

Sep 16 Feeder Cattle are at $142.525, up $1.400

Oct 16 Feeder Cattle are at $141.400, up $1.150

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures at the Thursday midday are trading 65 to 125 cents lower adding to triple digit losses from Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog index for 7/26 was $74.89, down $0.76 from the previous day. The USDA national average carcass cutout price this morning is up 55 cents. Bellies have come back up by $4.65/cwt in average price, after incurring a $17.40/cwt drop in price on Wednesday. The national weighted average cash hog base price is sharply lower this morning, down $2.24 to $65.57. WTD FI slaughter was estimated at 1.284 million head, 19,000 head larger than last Monday through Wednesday, and 25,000 head bigger than the same period a year ago. Weekly export sales during the week ending July 21 totaled 10,743 MT according to the morning USDA Export Sales report. This was down 4.6% from the previous week. Commitments as of July 21 were 104.6% of a year ago.

Aug 16 Hogs are at $70.425, down $1.250,

Oct 16 Hogs are at $60.300, down $0.750

Dec 16 Hogs are at $55.800, down $0.650

Cotton

Cotton futures are sharply lower at midday with most contracts down 120 to 136 points. Export sales of upland cotton totaled 234,724 RB during the week ending July 21, and 42,900 RB of Pima. China was in for 50,113 RB of new crop upland cotton, their largest new crop purchase of the marketing year. Bangladesh was also in for 3,100 RB for 2016/17 delivery, the country’s third consecutive weekly purchase. The Cotlook A Index was up 175 points to 85.35. ICE reported that there were 113,658 certified bales in storage warehouses on July 27, with 1,061 decertified bales. The USDA AWP for the week is 65.28. We get new numbers tonight.

Oct 16 Cotton is at 72.47, down 136 points,

Dec 16 Cotton is at 72.2, down 135 points

Mar 17 Cotton is at 72.6, down 120 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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