AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures settled from 1/4 to 1 1/4 cents lower on the day. The December contract lost a half a cent on the week. The Dec17-Dec16 spread is about 4.5 cents narrower than it was in early Sept. China announced a 33.8% anti-dumping duty on DDGs imported from most but not all US companies, alleging the industry is still government subsidized. The announcement had been anticipated, particularly after the US filed WTO complaints against China for other crops earlier in the month. The product may also just go to other destinations. Weekly data from the CFTC showed managed money accounts increasing their net short position by a net -14,652 contracts vs. a week earlier as of last Tuesday.

Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.46 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

May 17 Corn settled at $3.52 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents

Jul 17 Corn settled at $3.59 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures were mostly about 20 cents lower on Friday, but November was only down 11 cents from a week ago. Pressure came from weakness in both meal and oil, as well as some reports of impressive yields on early bean fields. Accumulated bean oil exports as a % of total projected exports are only at 91% vs. the 5yr avg of 98% for this week of the year. The Chinese decision to add a 33.8% import duty to US DDGS will likely create some pricing pressure on domestic soybean meal in the near term as the chairs get shuffled. The weekly Commitment of Traders Report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts increasing their net long position by a net 11,444 contracts during the week ending Tuesday 9/20.

Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.55, down 21 1/2 cents,

Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.61, down 21 cents,

Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $9.66 1/2, down 19 1/2 cents,

May 17 Soybeans settled at $9.71 3/4, down 19 1/2 cents,

Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $303.30, down $4.60,

Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at $33.31, down $0.65

Wheat

Wheat futures finished Friday trade mixed. The SRW contracts were slightly lower on the day, but HRW and HRS contracts were able to post small gains. The December16 contracts for all three classes were higher on the week; by 1.5 cents, 4.2 cents and 11 cents respectively. Export shipments were the smallest since the week ending August 4. Manage money accounts were adding to their net short position in Chicago wheat, but reducing their net short position in KC wheat during the week that ended with last Tuesday’s close.

Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.03 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures were able to finish Friday trade with October 20 cents higher on the day, but 60 cents lower on the week. Dec futures rallied to close only a dime lower after showing losses of more than $2 earlier in the session. Sept feeders were 17.5 cents lower on the day, but still up $1.325 from last Friday. Monthly data from USDA showed frozen beef stocks as of August 31 were up 1.5% from July 31, and were about 1.34% larger than a year ago in the Cold Storage report. The Cattle on Feed report had all COF at 101.5% of a year ago. Placements were 115.1%, and marketings were 117.6%. Remember, August 2016 had 2 extra kill days vs. August 2015. Wholesale beef prices this afternoon were down 56 cents for choice boxes and 81 cents for select. Cash cattle trade was quiet this week. Weekly slaughter including Saturday estimates is 592,000 head, which is 12,000 head smaller than last week, but 18,000 head larger than a year ago.

Oct 16 Cattle settled at $107.275, up $0.200,

Dec 16 Cattle settled at $106.850, down $0.100,

Feb 17 Cattle settled at $107.100, down $0.225,

Sep 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $136.825, down $0.175

Oct 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $132.375, up $0.075

Nov 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $129.725, up $0.225

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the day mixed with October 20 cents lower and December 30 cents higher. October finished the week with a $1.475 loss, and only about 30 cents above its life of contract low; re-established this week. The CME Lean Hog index for 9/21 was $60.48, down 48 cents but still at a major premium to the Board. Monthly data in the Cold Storage report showed frozen pork stocks on August 31 were down 7.11% from a year earlier, but 1.45% larger than they were on July 31. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $76.92, down $1.15 on the day thanks in part to losses exceeding $4/cwt for the loin and butt cuts. The national base hog price was 39 cents lower, with a weighted average of $50.88. The WCB average was 24 cents lower, and the ECB price was 59 cents lower while the IA/MN average was down just 13 cents. Weekly slaughter including Saturday estimates is up 113,000 head from last week, and 183,000 hear larger than the same period last year.

Oct 16 Hogs settled at $54.000, down $0.200,

Dec 16 Hogs settled at $48.900, up $0.300

Feb 17 Hogs settled at $53.350, down $0.125

Cotton

Cotton futures lost 139 to 209 points on Friday. Dec futures were still up 279 points on the week. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts collectively adding 3,852 contracts to their net long position during the week ending September 20. The spec net long position was shown to be larger than that of the Index funds, after dipping below it a week earlier. Cotton export sales were shipments were up more than 25% week/week, but well below their prior four week average. Net sales of upland cotton were up 45% from a week ago, but also far below their prior four week average. As we anticipated, the weekly AWP rose to 58.85 from 57.79 last week. It will be in effect through next Thursday. The Cotlook A Index is at 80.60, up .90 for 9/22.

Oct 16 Cotton settled at 69.080, down 209 points,

Dec 16 Cotton settled at 70.070, down 164 points

Mar 17 Cotton settled at 70.430, down 139 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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