AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn

Corn futures ended the Friday trade 3 1/4 cents higher to 1 1/4 cents lower, after trading as much as 5 cents higher earlier in the session. Front month May16 corn was up 18 1/2 cents from last Friday, and Dec16 corn was up 26 1/2 for the month. Managed money switched from holding a net short position on April 19, to a net long position of 79,781 contracts as of the close on April 26 per the CFTC. Planting progress in the US is expected to be 46 to 48% complete through this coming Sunday, up from 30% on average. French plantings through Monday were 27% finished, down from 69% last year, per FranceAgriMer. Increased acreage is expected to drive Ukrainian corn production up to 27.4 MMT in 2016/17, according to the ag attache. If realized, that would be a year over year increase of 17.4% from the official 2015/16 USDA estimate. Private exporters reported to the USDA that 100,640 MT of US corn was sold to Japan this morning for 2015/16 delivery.

May 16 Corn settled at $3.90 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.91 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.91 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.95 1/4, up 3/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed 3 cents higher to 3/4 cents lower, with May16 beans up 34 cents on the week. Nov16 beans were up 84 1/4 cents for the month. Drier Argentinean forecasts pressured the market ahead of the weekend, but a significantly weaker USD helped the front four contracts record daily gains. Soybean harvest in Argentina is currently estimated to be 24% finished, compared to the 2015 pace for this week of 62%. US planting progress is estimated to be 9 to 10% complete as of this coming Sunday night, up from the previous five year average of 6%. The official USDA figure will be released Monday afternoon at 3 PM CDT. Per the CFTC report this afternoon, managed money increased their net long position during the week ending April 26 by 24,715 contracts.

May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.21, up 3 cents,

Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.29 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.30 1/2, up 2 cents,

Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.07 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $332.10, up $1.50,

May 16 Soybean Oil settled at $32.88, down $0.17

Wheat

Wheat futures settled the Friday session mostly 2 to 5 cents higher. For the week, the May16 contract in each market recorded weekly gains of 11 cents (SRW), 3 1/2 cents (HRW), 14 1/2 cents (HRS). Managed money reduced their net short position in both SRW and HRW during the week ending April 26, by 27,436 contracts and 12,629 contracts respectively. Condition ratings in France were down from 91% good to excellent a week ago to 88% this week. Russia is projected by the USDA to be the largest exporter of wheat in 2016/17, surpassing the US, and the Russian Ag Minister does not see any reason that his country will remove the wheat export tax. The ag attache in Ukraine expects 2016/17 Ukrainian wheat production to fall by 10% year over year to 24.5 MMT, citing a reduction to planted area. Ukrainian exports are expected to be down 1.5 MMT year over year to 14 MMT.

Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.88 1/2, up 3 cents,

Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.78 1/2, up 4 cents,

Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.47, up 4 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures closed the day 12.5 to 82.5 cents higher, after April was trading with daily gains of as much as $2.625 earlier in the session, and then expired at $123.10. Jun16 cattle were up 27.5 cents from the Friday before. Feeders finished mostly 52 to 70 cents higher, although May feeders were down 15 cents in their first day as the lead month. The May16 contract lost $2.02 on the week. Aug16 feeders hit a new life of contract low at $138.10 early this morning. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/28 was down $1.38 to $144.30. Cash cattle trade had light demand on Friday, but recorded a few live sales from $123 to $124, and dressed sales from $188 to $192. Both categories are sharply lower from last week. Choice boxed beef prices were down $1.05 on Friday to $211.45 (-$8.86 Fri to Fri), and select boxes were 82 cents lower to $202.27 (-$8.42 Fri to Fri). Including Saturday estimates, FI cattle slaughter for the week was 590,000 head, up 3,000 head from last week, and 26,000 head larger than the same week in 2015. Beef production this week reached 485.8 million pounds.

Apr 16 Cattle settled at $123.100, up $0.250,

Jun 16 Cattle settled at $114.925, up $0.125,

Aug 16 Cattle settled at $112.425, up $0.675,

May 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $140.425, down $0.150

Aug 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $140.375, up $0.575

Sep 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $140.500, up $0.575

Lean Hogs

Hog futures were 92.5 cents higher to 12.5 cents lower on Friday, with the front four contracts each recording daily gains. Jun16 hogs were up $2.875 from last Friday, and finished at their highest daily close since March 29. The CME Lean Hog Index for 4/27 was 75 cents higher to 69.01. The average carcass cutout value was 57 cents higher on Friday (+$2.78 Fri to Fri). Pork butts and bellies were up $3.98/cwt and $4.40/cwt respectively on Friday. The national average cash hog base price on Friday was up 86 cents. Regional prices were 68 cents higher in IA/MN, and up 73 cents in the WCB. WTD FI hog slaughter with Saturday estimates was 2.139 million head, down 102,000 head from last week, and 12,000 head smaller than the same period a year ago. Pork production was only 457.0 million pounds this week, 4.5% lower than last week, and down just slightly from this week in 2015. The weekly CFTC report showed managed money added 448 contracts to their net long position as of the close on April 26.

May 16 Hogs settled at $77.900, up $0.575,

Jun 16 Hogs settled at $81.700, up $0.925

Jul 16 Hogs settled at $81.775, up $0.525

Cotton

Cotton futures settled 7 to 18 points higher on Friday, with the July16 contract up 8 points on both the day and the week. May16 cotton expires a week from today. The USD was down more than 600 points when ag commodities closed, helping to make US commodities more price-competitive on the export market. Managed money held a net long position of 32,258 contracts as of the close on Tuesday, per the CFTC report this afternoon. The Cotlook A Index was up 35 points to 71.70. ICE reported that there were 57,746 certified bales in warehouses on April 28, with 4,518 new certs, and no decertified bales. The USDA AWP for this week is 52.33, up from 50.53 last week. The MLG dropped to 0, from 1.47 during the past week.

May 16 Cotton settled at 63.760, up 7 points,

Jul 16 Cotton settled at 63.770, up 8 points

Dec 16 Cotton settled at 62.720, up 18 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com