AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher this morning, supported by higher wheat prices and the surge in soybean meal. The market will be open normal hours today, and then closed until 8:30 am CST on Friday morning. The weekly ethanol production report from the EIA will be out later today, with a large grind expected. Brazilian sources continue to see first crop acreage down between 4-8%. Final production numbers for 2014 crop now look to be about 97% of year ago as the safrinha harvest wraps up. China is beginning their annual reserve buying program, paying roughly $9.35 per bushel to take up to 40 MMT of corn off the market between now and April. The government sells back those reserves in the tighter summer supply period.

Dec 14 Corn is at $3.77, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 15 Corn is at $3.89 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

May 15 Corn is at $3.98 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents

Jul 15 Corn is at $4.05 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading4 to 8 cents lower at midday. Nearby December meal is supported by shorts scrambling to exit ahead of December deliveries. There are currently no receipts registered for delivery against Dec meal. China bought another 120,000 MT of soybeans for 2014/15 delivery, as announced by USDA under the daily reporting system. This ran counter to other market “talk” that crush margins on imported beans had turned negative in China.

Jan 15 Soybeans are at $10.42 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans are at $10.48 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

May 15 Soybeans are at $10.54 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 15 Soybeans are at $10.59, down 5 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 Soybean Meal is at $397.30, up $6.70,

Dec 14 Soybean Oil is at $33.62, up $0.20

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently 4 to 9 cents higher at midday after gains of 9 to 13 cents in the front month contracts yesterday.  EU wheat futures on the MATIF have rallied up close to their July highs, due to strong exports. The Aussie crop harvest is well underway. Some wire reports show “better than expected” yields, but yield ideas were low due to both drought and frost damage at various stages. Brazilian production is estimated to be 7.5 MMT by local sources, up almost 30% from the depressed 2013 crop. 

Dec 14 CBOT Wheat is at $5.60, up 8 1/2 cents,

Dec 14 KCBT Wheat is at $6.22 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 14 MGEX Wheat is at $5.95, up 4 1/4 cents

Cattle

Cattle futures are trading 42 lower to 30 higher this morning, with the summer 2015 contracts hitting new highs for the day. Wholesale beef prices are higher again this morning, with Choice boxes up $0.59 and Select up $0.16.  Week to date slaughter estimated at 228K head was 5K larger than a week ago, and 21K head smaller than a year ago. Some limited cash cattle trade has been reported this morning at $173, with most asking prices at $174 and $274 in the northern carcass based market.

Dec 14 Cattle are at $169.400, down $0.750,

Feb 15 Cattle are at $170.075, down $0.950,

Apr 15 Cattle are at $168.450, down $0.650,

Jan 15 Feeder Cattle are at $230.425, down $0.950

Mar 15 Feeder Cattle are at $229.150, down $0.775

Apr 15 Feeder Cattle are at $229.850, down $0.400

Lean Hogs

Hog futures are trading steady to 50 cents higher at midday. Hog slaughter so far this week is running ahead of year ago. The week to date estimate is 869K head, which is 22K head larger than a week ago, and 7K head larger than a year ago. The pork carcass cutout value was down $0.52 in the morning report.  Hams are showing typical seasonal losses with most of the processor demand for Christmas now satisfied. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 4 cents at $88.74.  The ECB hog market was not reported by USDA due to confidentiality restrictions. The WCB market is $1.02 lower this morning. The IA/MN average price was reported $1.05 lower.

Dec 14 Hogs are at $91.025, up $0.075,

Feb 15 Hogs are at $89.900, up $0.075

Apr 15 Hogs are at $92.200, up $0.550

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 40 to 90 points higher this morning.  The US dollar index is weaker for the third day in a row due to holiday position squaring. Cert stocks for December deliveries are up to 31,351 bales thanks to 1,575 new certs issued on Tuesday. There have been zero deliveries vs. December cotton. The Cotlook A Index is up 50 points at 66.45. 

Dec 14 Cotton is at 60.55, up 89 points,

Mar 15 Cotton is at 59.83, up 52 points

May 15 Cotton is at 60.57, up 38 points

Jul 15 Cotton is at 61.5, up 37 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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