AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading more than 5 cents lower at midday.  They reached as high as $3.65 earlier this morning.  That is more than 46 cents above the low posted on the first day of this month.  We suspect some traders took profits off the table at the end of a relatively solid week for the corn market.  Private exporters reported to the USDA an export sale of 101,600 MT to unknown destinations this morning.  Weekly export sales came in toward the higher end of expectations on Thursday at 1,031,200 MT.  Brazilian ethanol imports are expected to double this year vs. last year, with the US capturing the majority of the business.

Dec 14 Corn is at $3.54 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Mar 15 Corn is at $3.68, down 5 1/2 cents,

May 15 Corn is at $3.76 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents

Jul 15 Corn is at $3.84, down 5 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently more than 8 cents lower after on the day, after posting new highs for the move at $10.02 shortly after 7AM this morning.  The November contract gained 30 cents on Thursday after the USDA reported net weekly export sales at 2.17 MMT, showing strong export demand.  The domestic crushers want to get their hands on the beans too, in order to make good on their export commitments for soybean meal.  Cumulative 2014/15 meal export commitments are currently well ahead of recent years.  November soybean options expire today. The run off presidential election in Brazil is this weekend.

Nov 14 Soybeans are at $9.84 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans are at $9.90 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans are at $9.97 1/2, down 9 cents,

May 15 Soybeans are at $10.04 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 Soybean Meal is at $352.60, up $0.20,

Dec 14 Soybean Oil is at $32.26, down $0.41

Wheat

Wheat futures are trading lower on the day, after the front months showed gains of a dime or more in overnight trading.  Export sales reported on Thursday were below expectations.  Commitments since June 1 are now 59% of the full year forecast. The 5 year average pace for this date is 58%.  More than 20.4 million bushels are now in the governmental 9 month price support loan program, up 2.375 mbu from the previous week. A Bloomberg survey is putting the Australian wheat crop at 23.2 MMT due to frost and hail damage (and some southern dryness issues) vs. the previous government estimate at 24.2 MMT.

Dec 14 CBOT Wheat is at $5.20 3/4, down 6 cents,

Dec 14 KCBT Wheat is at $5.96 1/4, down 9 cents,

Dec 14 MGEX Wheat is at $5.67 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents

Cattle

Cattle futures are trading sharply lower at midday.  Feeders are also showing triple digit losses.  Spec traders are likely taking money off the table ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed report scheduled for release this afternoon.  Cash cattle trade has developed at $170 in TX and NE this morning, up as much as $6 from last week. Wholesale prices were also sharply lower in the morning report, with Choice off $2.39 and Select off $1.10.  Estimated week to date slaughter is 449K, 4K larger than last week, but 40K head smaller than a year ago. On average the trade is looking for USDA to show the number of cattle on feed October 1 at 99.7% of year ago.

Oct 14 Cattle are at $167.900, down $1.150,

Dec 14 Cattle are at $167.000, down $2.100,

Feb 15 Cattle are at $166.575, down $2.275,

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle are at $237.950, down $2.275

Nov 14 Feeder Cattle are at $234.700, down $2.000

Jan 15 Feeder Cattle are at $229.125, down $1.850

Lean Hogs

Hog futures are mostly lower on the day, with only the front two months showing any green at midday.  The USDA average pork carcass cutout value continues to leak lower, down another $2.34 to $98.20 in the morning report.  The average carcass base price was not reported in any of the major marketing areas this morning due to confidentiality restrictions.  Week to date estimated slaughter is 1.708 million head, 4K head less than last week and 8K head less than a year ago.

Dec 14 Hogs are at $88.950, up $0.225,

Feb 15 Hogs are at $87.575, up $0.125

Apr 15 Hogs are at $87.850, down $0.700

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 33 to 100 points higher at midday.  Export commitments as a percent of total projected 2014/15 exports are at 61%, several points ahead of the 5 year average for this date of 53%.  They were only 41% after this week last year.  Estimated futures volume on Thursday bounced back up to around 17,500 contracts, vs. 12,926 officially on Tuesday.  Cert stocks for Dec futures delivery are currently at 15,928 bales. The LDP for this week is 2.70 cents per pound.

Dec 14 Cotton is at 64.05, up 101 points,

Mar 15 Cotton is at 62.42, up 54 points

May 15 Cotton is at 63.35, up 58 points

Jul 15 Cotton is at 64, up 33 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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